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Юго-Восточная Азия: актуальные проблемы развития,
Выпуск IX (9), 2006

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СОДЕРЖАНИЕ
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Другов А.Ю.  Слово об Александре Борисовиче Беленьком

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РАЗДЕЛ 1.   ОБЩЕРЕГИОНАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ



Мосяков Д.В.
Юго-Восточная Азия в современных политических и экономических процессах в Большой Восточной Азии


Abstract:
Dr. Dmitry Mosiakov in his paper discusses the new trends in political and economic processes in Greater Eastern Asia last years, connecting them with regional integration. The special role of China in these processes is stressed.

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Былиняк
С.A. Страны Юго-Восточной Азии: модель послекризисного развития


Abstract:
Dr. Stanislav Bulinyak's studies the models of post-crisis development in the countries of South-East Asia and East Asia. The crisis in SEA and EA encouraged reevaluation of the East Asian model of development. The author discusses the possible alternations of the former strategy of development. He considers in what directions and to what extent these changes are possible.


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Гусев М.Н. Еще раз про ... терроризм


Abstract:
In Dr. Mikhail Gusev's article it is stated that violence has become a constant factor of political process in South East Asia. At the same time the author underlines that this doesn't mean that the ideas of militant Islamic extremism are generally accepted everywhere in the region. It is sooner on the contrary - the majority of Muslim population of the region are the followers of moderate Islam. Although the balance of forces is in favour of the latter, the active minority which advocates extremist methods could in some cases tilt the balance to unpredictable direction, profiteering by some social and economic problems of the region.

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Ефимова Л.М. Морское пиратство в Юго-Восточной Азии в 2005 году


Abstract:
L.M. Efimova in her article marks that the total number of worldwide reported attacks dropped in 2005 to 276 compared to 329 in 2004. The drop is believed to be attributed to the increased awareness and anti piracy watches in risk prone areas, increase in law enforcement patrols and international pressure on some governments to act. Nevertheless Southeast Asia and especially Indonesia continued to record the highest number of attacks with 79 reported incidents. Though this is a drop from 94 attacks in 2004, Indonesia still accounts for nearly 30% of the worldwide incidents of piracy and armed robbery against ships.
The 2005 figures show a drop in the number of attacks in Malacca Straits, Malaysia and Thailand. Though the attack numbers have dropped, the International Maritime Bureau stresses that many actual and attempted cases also go unreported. And as seen in the past, any let-up would see the attacks quickly resume.

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Колдунова E.B. Нетрадиционные аспекты безопасности в Юго-Восточной Азии: характерные черты и тенденции эволюции


Abstract:
The article by Ekaterina Koldunova is focused on the analysis of non-traditional security in Southeast Asia from the viewpoint of regional level of analysis, which implies the common logic and dynamics of these aspects of security for the whole region. Some negative security trends which became apparent in 2005 were provoked by terrorist threat to the region, unsolved problems of the sea lines of communication security, evolution of the HIV/AIDs pandemia, new threats to the ecological security. These trends have shown the growing interdependance and complex nature of non-traditional threats. On the one hand, such new threats can be caused by old unsolved regional problems and, on the other hand, by the processes of globalization which requres a consolidated reaction on the regional level. However sometimes national interests of Southeastasian states contradict each other and become a significant factor of regional disintegration, which hamper the solution of transnational problems.

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Курицын М.В. Страны ЮВА и инвестиционный бум в Китае


Abstract:
M. Kouritsyn asserts that contrary to their expectations in 2005 SEA countries could not take advantage of China's investment boom in full. It was caused by two main reasons: 1) SEA countries proved to be noncompetitive as investors on the very complicated and intricate Chinese market, and 2) they could not use the long-expected special investment regime declared by both China and ASEAN. Beginning July 20, 2005 The China-ASEAN FTA Framework Agreement took in force, but investment regime liberalization was still negotiated by partners. The author pays attention to primordial low investment profile of SEA companies in China: in 2005 among all foreign enterprises investing in the PRC their share was 4,7% only, in Chinese government approved FDI 4,6%, as well as in realized FDI just 4,1%. Even Singaporean investors, the most successful of all SEA's ones, experienced some difficulties in China due to mounting tension from the competitors mainly Taiwanese and Western companies.

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РАЗДЕЛ 2. ПОЛИТИЧЕСКОЕ И ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ ОТДЕЛЬНЫХ СТРАН



Барышникова О. Актуальные проблемы развития Филиппин в 2005-начале 2006


Abstract:
Dr. Olga Baryshnikova studies the situation in the Philippines' economy in 2005-early 2006 stressing the influence of macroeconomic figures on the realization of the course of the government aimed at reduction of the number of the poor and creating better quality of life for the Philippines' population as a whole. New official data and the IMF materials are used.

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Васильев В.Ф. Обострение отношений внутри и вне АСЕАН по «бирманскому вопросу» 2004-2005 гг. и новые траектории международных связей Мьянмы


Abstract:
Dr. VladimirVasiliev in his article "Tension in the ASEAN and around over "Myanmar question" and Myanmar's efforts to find new world partners" describes Myanmar's present external and internal difficulties (non-admission to chairing the 2006 ASEAN meeting, economic and other sanctions imposed by the US and EU and constant criticism leveled by the West and some ASEAN countries over Myanmar delay with promised democratic reforms). This seems to have greatly fatigued Myanmar's ruling junta and it has decided to make certain changes in its foreign policy accents toward enlargement and differentiation of its international partners. As a result Myanmar established closer ties with India, renewed its broad cooperation with Russia, reestablished diplomatic relations with North Korea (in addition to long-time close ties with China). The author believes that the Myanmar junta, making these rearrangements, hopes to raise its poor international image and standing, improve and diversify economically and to rearm as far as possible.

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Другов А.Ю. Индонезия в 2005 г.: проблемы и вызовы


Abstract:
Dr. Alexey Drugov in his paper "Indonesia in 2005: Problems and Challenges" states certain results of S.B.Yudhoyono's government in achieving political stabilization, in lessening ethnic tension. But the former problems remain, namely - a narrow basis of the President's own support in the parliament, fragmentary character of the political elite. Under these conditions two processes are under way: the "gradual Islamization" of the society on the one side and the growing sentiments in favor of greater role of the army, - on the other.
The author underlines that in international relations contradictions are growing between Indonesia and the USA with President S. B. Yudhoyono attempting to diversify foreign political ties. It is also stressed that such destabilizing factor as territorial disputes of Indonesia with its neighbours still persists.

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Иоанесян С.И. Лаос в 2005 г.


Abstract:
In  her  paper Dr. Saiima Yoanesian analyses  the  results  of the Lao PDR  social-economic development during  the  last  30  years, the  Lao PDR  being proclaimed on December 2, 1975. The author also studies the realization  of  the five-year plan for 2001-2005. Along with that she considers the policy of  the  state in 2005. The results of the public process in the Republic are estimated as quite positive from the point of view of market reforms, taking of the country out of stagnation to the new economy, notwithstanding all difficulties and complicated problems of the forthcoming period. Dr. Yoanesian underlines that the idea of building of a one-party government socialist model of society in future is still valid.

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Куликова М.О. Итоги первого года правления Сусило Бамбанга Юдхойоно (некоторые параллели с президентством Мегавати Сукарнопутри)


Abstract:
Maria Kulikova focuses her attention on the results of the first year in power of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in comparison with the presidency of his predecessor Megawati Sukarnoputri. She also assesses the prospects of the new president. To resolve great economic problems facing the country the President made majour reshuffle of the cabinet of ministers at the end of 2005.The results of the renewed government's work in 2006 will shape the prospects for the President at the next elections.

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Левтонова Ю.О. Политика на Филиппинах: в тупике или на перепутье?


Abstract:
Dr. Julia Levtonova analyses the political crises in the Philippines (June 2005 - March 2006), questioning the chances to functioning for the political system of the country. The author also considers the prospects for presidency of G. Arroyo.

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Мазырин В.М. О соблюдении гражданских свобод во Вьетнаме


Abstract:
Dr. V.Mazyrin makes the first attempt in national oriental studies  to  analyze the fundamental civil freedoms' availability in Vietnam with the aim to reveal core changes in domestic political system during 2004-2005. This scholarship is based on huge historical background and reliable sources of information, i.e. various western researches, international non-government organizations (NGOs), Vietnamese officials and mass media.
Summing up his review, the author concludes, that core civil freedoms in Vietnam are still very limited, while the state keeps its authoritative nature in many respects. At the same time there are signs of gradual progress in this domain: Vietnam continues its transition towards liberal parliamentary republic with mono party system. The deepening of market reforms has created preconditions for the emergence of human rights, simultaneously having strengthened social and national inequality. It is argued, that Vietnamese population, being satisfied primarily with economic freedom, bears such political regime quietly due to the lack of democratic mentality and legal consciousness. The country's leadership successfully governs society, ignoring the ideas of personal freedom and democracy, basing state management on paternalist traditions and norms of rural community.

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Мурашева Г.Ф. Вьетнам и Китай в 2005 г.


Abstract:
In her study "China and Vietnam in 2005" Dr. Galina Murashova examines the character of relations between China and Vietnam from geopolitical, economical and ideological perspective.
Geopolitically, Vietnam has to balance between the two giants - China and the US, trying to use their differences in South East Asia to its advantage.
Economically speaking the relations between the two countries are designed by the new international strategy and the idea of a "peaceful rise" of China, which presupposes China's leadership in the region. In 2005 China left the USA behind and became the main trade partner of Vietnam with both countries still competing for foreign investments and foreign markets.
As for the ideology, the two countries could be considered partners as both of them are governed by communist parties with Marxism-Leninism as basic ideology.


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Попов А.В. Проблемы острова богов


Abstract: Dr. Alexander Popov analyses the modern situation in Indonesia province Bali, with its unique nature, reach cultural and religious tradition and distinctive structure of its society. The main trends in development of Bali's economics which are based on agriculture and international tourism are examined. Great attention is paid the urgent problems of the province, which are mainly connected with sharp degradation of ecological situation as well as aggressive pressure of radical Muslim neighborhood on this Hindu region of Indonesia.

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Симония А.А. Перспективы развития военно-технического сотрудничества России со странами Юго-Восточной Азии


Abstract:
Dr. Aida Simonya studies the prospects of development of cooperation between Russia and the countries of South East Asia in the field of armaments. The author specially stresses the problems of international law basis building for this cooperation, which has been almost completed by now. The problems of possible widening of military and technical cooperation both geographically (including Bruney) and by diversification of the list of goods and services of military use.

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Смирнова А.А.
Экономическая помощь как средство содействия эскалации частного капитала во Вьетнам


Abstract:
In her paper A. Smirnova analyses ODA as a mean of qualified contribution to foreign private capital expansion into Vietnamese economy. After 1992, more than 70% of ODA to Vietnam is committed by Western and Eastern donors. In contrast to ODA from socialist countries before 1993, new international donors of Vietnam (mainly Japan, France, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, IBRD and ADB) emphasize the creation of most favourable conditions for private enterprises activities as well as the development of the local economy sectors which are of top priority for private companies, most of all the foreign ones. There is good reason to believe that during some 10-13 years (especially in 2001-2005) evident preference was given to all kind of infrastructure development industrial, transport, energy and social. The author inclined to believe that ODA flows played a positive role in Vietnam's socio development in general. Undoubtedly, ODA flows played an exceptionally important role in foreign private capital advancement in Vietnam, increasing the competitiveness of both foreign companies and their local counterparts. But a number of 2005 events saw us the realization of ODA in Vietnam was severely complicated by some negative social phenomena, especially by corruption.

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Соколов А.А. Американский вектор во внешней политике Вьетнама


Abstract:
In Dr. Anatoly Sokolov's paper "The American Vector in Vietnam's Foreign Policy" the author-analyses the current Vietnam-American relations in different spheres: economic, political, cultural and others. Special attention is given to cooperation between the SRV and the US in the context of Vietnam-China relations.

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Сучков Г.В. Вооруженные силы Индонезии в первый год президентства Сусило Бамбанг Юдхойоно

Abstract: Grigory Suchkov in his paper entitled "Indonesia's Armed Forces in the first year of S. B. Yudhoyono's Presidency" states that one of the acute problems challenging the new President is the reform of the Armed Forces, which earlier had not been systematic. The process of disengagement of the Army from its autonomous character and leading political role in the society as well as its self-dependent business activity encounters serious difficulties. They result from conservative mode of thinking of the majority of the top officers and from scanty resources assigned in the budget on defense needs.
It is also very important that during eight years after the fall of military-repressive regime, the civil institutions have failed to assume the proper position in the state, which gives an impetus to the image of the army as a pillar of Indonesian statehood.

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Фомичева Е.А. Политический кризис в Таиланде 2005-2006 гг. Его развитие, причины и движущие силы

Abstract: Dr. Elena  Fomieheva in her paper makes an attempt to analyze the cause and the acting forces of the political crises in Thailand in 2005 - 2006. The author assesses these political events as a crisis of the whole political system of the country, stressing that the cause of it is the disturbing of the balance of political elites with the new political elite attempting to assume all political and economic power in the country. It is also stated that the underlying cause of current political turmoil is deep economic and political disparity between the poor and the rich, between the capital and the countryside.


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Цеханова Л. Политика ГСМР в религиозном вопросе


Abstract:
In her paper L.Tsehanova analyses theravada Buddhism is Myanmar's religion and about 89% of the population is Buddhist. There are also Christians (4%), Muslims (4%) and Hindus.
Since December 2005 National Convention has been working out the new Constitution, which will secure freedom of religious worship.
But as one could see in 2005 there were cases of disagreements between the authorities and the religious minorities. Religious persecution by the military regime poses a matter of grave concern among Christians and Muslims.
Violation of religious freedom of non-Buddhists serves as a political instrument for the SPDC: the junta which strongly identifies itself with Buddhism and has been preoccupied with building national unity has been trying to promote Buddhism over Christianity and Islam with the belief that once the religious minorities are converted to Buddhism they can be easily subjugated.
Missionary activity poses a dual problem for the SPDC: the support given to the Buddhist monks secures power legitimation for the junta, but at the same time it pricks up religious minorities' ears.

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Черепнева Е.А. Индонезийская православная церковь (ИПЦ): этнокультурная специфика и особенности церковного обряда (2005-2006)


Abstract:
Dr. Elena  Cherepneva looks into the events in the Indonesian Orthodox Church in 2005- early 2006. Special attention is given to its coming under the jurisdiction of the Russian Orthodox Church Outside Russia (ROCOR). The author also examines cultural peculiarities and specific religious ceremonies of the Indonesian Orthodox Church.

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Пивоваров Д.В. Вьетнам и ООН в 2005 г.


Abstract: The article Pivovarov  D."Vietnam Engagement in UN activities" describes the problems of Vietnam activities within the UN system in 2005. In 2005 Vietnam focused on various aspects of economic, political, humanitarian and ecological cooperation within the UN. With this comprehensive approach to the UN Vietnam tried to reach its goals working on the 60 th anniversary session of the General Assembly and within the specialized bodies of the UN system.
The article emphasizes the idea that the main task for Vietnam nowadays is to be elected as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for 2008 - 2009. This overwhelming Vietnam determination targets a very clear but ambitious goal. Winning the UN Security Council seat reflected the core of Vietnam's activities in 2005. Evidently the whole process of preparation to win the chair will take some more time and the consent among regional nations on the issue.
Vietnam has always underlined the unique importance of the UN not only in global but also in regional matters. The UN mechanism is deeply engaged in addressing South East Asia regional challenges, including security, economic, humanitarian, ecological issues particularly important for all South East Asian states. The UN mechanism also contributes to overcoming certain internal Vietnamese social-economic, humanitarian and ecological problems.
By its nature the United Nations' system is devoted to reflect the interests of all its member-states and that strengthens the importance of Vietnam-UN ties.


 
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