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Юго-Восточная Азия: актуальные проблемы развития,
Выпуск X (10), 2007

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СОДЕРЖАНИЕ
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Левтонова Ю.О.
Слово памяти об Ольге Гавриловне Барышниковой

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РАЗДЕЛ 1. ОБЩЕРЕГИОНАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ



Былиняк С.А.  
Страны Юго-Восточной и Восточной Азии: экономическое развитие до и после кризиса


Abstract:
Dr. Stanislav Byliniak in his paper entitled «The countries of South-East Asia: economic development before and after the crisis» states that it took some time to overcome the after-effects of the financial crisis in the region, the peak of which fell on 1997-1998. But evidently 2003-2004 could be considered as a starting point of active post-crisis development.
Many economists believe that post-crisis development of South-East Asian countries is going on quite successfully. But a number of analysts express certain doubts as for this. Indeed, as it easy to see the average rates of growth of practically all the South-East Asian countries fell. The corresponding data is provided in this paper. Moreover economic development is going unevenly accompanied by production slowing down.
In this connection it is appropriate to put a question - is it accidental or is it a sign of changed reproduction conditions. The author attempts to answer this question.
The paper also covers the specific features of economic development of certain South-East Asian countries last years.

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Заказникова Е.П.  
Общее и особенное в положении рабочей силы стран Юго-Восточной Азии


Abstract: Dr. Evgenia Zakaznikova in her paper entitled «Согшпоп and special in labour situation of the countries of South-East Asia» gives data on labour and evaluates its growth by 2015 as well as the situation with employment and the level of poverty in these countries. The author considers differences in labour laws in ASEAN countries and describes the activity of labour unions representing the interest of industrial workers and office employees. She examines migration policies of the countries exporting and importing work force. Special attention is paid to the efforts by the leaders of ASEAN countries to bridge the gap between the level of economic development in the countries-founders and the new members of the Association. It is stated that social and political protest of working population in a number of countries of the region is gaining momentum due to worse living conditions.

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Иоанесян С.И.  Россия и ситуация с наркотиками в Юго-Восточной Азии


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Колдунова Е.В.  Формирование сообщества АСЕАН: аспекты безопасности


Abstract: E. Koldunova's article is devoted to the prospects of ASEAN security community establishment. At the 12 lh ASEAN Summit in Cebu, the Philippines (9-15 January, 2007) the ASEAN leaders adopted a number of documents and among them - Cebu Declaration on the Acceleration of the Establishment of an ASEAN Community by 2015. The Association plans to create an ASEAN Community basing on the three pillars: ASEAN Security Community, ASEAN Economic Community and ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community.
In the theoretic studies the idea of security communities was coined by K. Deutsch in application to the Western states and initially implied an integrated group of states which share a consensus about non-use of force in the mutual relations and liberal-democratic values. The ASEAN project, taking into account the existing concepts, can nevertheless be considered an alternative model, which reflects the South-East Asian understanding of a security community.

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Копылов О.В.  К вопросу об экономическом сотрудничестве России с АСЕАН: реалии и возможности


Abstract: In article Kopylov O. studies the convincing evolution of ASEAN into a solid political and economic force in the Asia Pacific has filled the agenda of the Russia-ASEAN dialogue partnership with a new strategic substance. This fact urges both sides to accelerate in-depth mutual cooperation, especially in the area of trade and investment.
Evidently, the Russia-ASEAN economic ties now fall well short of the opportunities provided by the growing national economies. This disparity is even more striking if we take a look on the successful development of our political dialogue. Both ASEAN and Russia acknowledge the problem and are eager to eliminate the obstacles to trade and investment cooperation. Mutual efforts are required to change the situation fundamentally, with results to follow in the forthcoming years.

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Курицын М.В.
Китайские инвестиции в странах ЮВА: тенденции и перспективы

Abstract:
M. Kouritsyn notes that following to official Chinese recordings, SEA countries direct investment in China are much more than Chinese ones in ASEAN area 40 and 1,5 US$ bin to the end of 2006). On this basis, PRC Government and Chinese businessmen strongly repudiate the charges of ((investment expansion» appearing from time to time in SEA countries. But actually the picture is not so rosy and even contradictory. If one takes into account that the main part of Chinese investment comes to SEA countries via Hongkong (or Cayman and British Virgin Islands), the actual volume of Chinese direct investment in the region author believes to exceed 35 USS bin. So really the problem of imbalance of investment flows between PRC and SEA countries is not so crucial today. Even more now SEA countries are much more anxious about Chinese 'Go Global' programme: they hope for getting much more investment from PRC, their wealthy and prosperous neighbor.

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Мосяков Д.В.  ЮВА и американо-китайское соперничество


Abstract:
Dr. Dmitry Mosiakov in his paper ((Intensification of contradictions between the US and China in South-East Asia» examines the current state of global fight for predominance in South-East Asia and the Great Eastern Asia as a whole. It is stated that quite contrary to the previous period, which was characterized by China's steady increase of its economic and political positions and consequent weakening of American influence in the region, nowadays the US has come to a principal determination to seek ways to reestablish their lost positions. With this end in view the concept was worked out to return Washington to the region with defense, political and economic aspects being incorporated in it. The implementation of this concept aimed at building up a counterbalance to possible Chinese domination, betoken new aggravation of ever evident contradictions between the greatest world powers.


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Осипова М.Г.  Региональная и глобальная финансовая интеграция в Юго-Восточной Азии


Abstract: Dr. Marina Osipova's paper entitled ((Financial integration in South-East Asia» examines economic strategies of the countries of South-East Asia for the near future in the sphere of financial integration of the region. ASEAN + 3 (South Korea, Japan and China) are moving towards more open financial system. However monetary union makes such rigid requirements for co-ordination of policy and for setting up the necessary institutions, that evidently it will call for clear political will on the part of the Asian countries.

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Рогожина Н.Г.  Влияние экологического фактора на формирование бизнес-среды в странах ЮВА


Abstract:
Dr. Natalya Rogojina emphasizes the importance of the incorporation of environmental interests in the strategy of development of the SEA countries, taking into account the goal of creating the new model of «green» growth. It means that industrial development of the region's countries should be orientated towards promoting the efficient us of natural resources and reducing the risk of polluting the environment with the subsequent modification of their business environment.

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РАЗДЕЛ 2. ПОЛИТИЧЕСКОЕ И ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ ОТДЕЛЬНЫХ СТРАН



Васильев В.Ф.  
Почему переехала столица Мьянмы/Бирмы?

Abstract: Dr. Vladimir Vasiliev article is dedicated to an unusual and certainly puzzling event - the unexpected move of Myanmar's capital from Yangon (Rangoon) to a nearly unknown place deep inside the country where a new capital had been secretly built by 2006 under the name Naypyidaw. The author presumes that the military government intends to entrench its position in view of a constitutional reform it vowed in 2003 to carry out. The new administrative and military centre at Naypyidaw, being separate and isolated from the old one rich in politically active population, is looked upon by the junta as a new and unchallenged fortress of its power under the expected reform. The author also points out 10 an external aspect of the junta's actions - by going «deep» inside the country. It counts 10 minimize the effect of a real or imagined military strike by the USA against Myanmar's army regime (which the author believes unlikely under the circumstances, foremost because of me mighty Chinese factor). In general the author is doubtful about Myanmar's longtenn economic, financial, organizational and, lastly, political gain from moving the capital From Rangoon, the world-known sea port to a remote god-forsaken place


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Глебов Д.  Другой взгляд на современную Бирму


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Головин С.  Таиландско-японские отношения в 2006-2007 гг.


Abstract:
In Golovin's S. study considers the new developments in Thai - Japanese relations in 2006-2007. This year marks the 120-th anniversary of bilateral diplomatic relations and an official visit by the Thai Prime-Minister S.Chulanon to Japan. In the cause of the visit the Agreement on Economic Partnership between Thailand and Japan was signed which would certainly stimulate development of some Thai industries as well as bilateral relations. In this respect the author surveys economic relations between two countries and their prospects. It is stressed that some Thai NGOs voiced protests against the Agreement on the grounds that it could undermine some Thai industries.


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Господынько А.А.  Сингапур и Индонезия в 2006 г.


Abstract:
The article «Singapore and Indonesia in 2006» by Gospodinko A. analyzes bilateral relations of two neighboring states. The relations though sometimes difficult and tense appear to be fruitful in the areas of mutual interests like economic development.
Suspicion still persists in some areas of cooperation but nevertheless it seems that bilateral relations are on the right track.
Closer ties in economic and military fields are becoming a reality already. Resolution of all disputes will definitely pave the way for a successful mutual development.

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Гуревич Э.М.  Сингапур после выборов 2006 г.


Dr.  Emma Gourevitch analyses some results of Lee Hsien Loong's first premier-ministerial term in connection with general election of 2006. Lee Hsien Loong's economic policy has proved its efficiency. However, the problem of the widening income gap between the rich and the poor will be the Prime Minister's main task in near future. The author believes that the chief explanation for the phenomenon, however, is globalization. The entry of low-cost countries into the global marketplace has meant wage pressure at the low-skilled end of job spectrum in countries like Singapore.
As to the domestic policy, the author stresses that a tight control, both of the political opposition parties and of members of the public who choose to criticise the government in the media, remains a cornerstone of the new Prime Minister's course. In author's opinion the knuckleduster approach can no longer be as readily applied today as in the early years of PAP rule.
The major constrain comes from within the nation itself, in the first place from the young generation whose vote will make a big difference in future elections.

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Другов А.Ю.  Индонезия в 2005 г. Стабилизация в экономике и разногласия в элите


Abstract: In Dr. Alexey Drugov's study entitled ((Indonesia in 2006: stabilization in the economy and discord in the elite» it is stressed that against the background of a certain stabilization in Indonesia's economy the discord in the higher circles of the country's elite had been growing. It was accompanied with the process of Islamisation upcountry and slower pace of democratic reforms.
As for the foreign policy the author highlights President S.B.Yudhoyono's visit to the Russian Federation and intensification of partnership between the two countries, at the same time stressing the longstanding contradictions between Indonesia and the US mainly on the question of the forms of fighting against terrorism. The author considers as a factor of concern the controversial situations in Indonesia's relations with Malaysia and Singapore.

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Ефимова Л.М.  
Демократия и ислам в общественной мысли современной Индонезии


Abstract: Dr. Larisa Efimova focuses her attention on discussions in Indonesia's Islamic community around the problem of compatibility between Islam and democracy. Opinions are quite diverse. Radicals insist on absolute incompatibility between two systems of values. «Liberal Moslems» accept democracy, trying to modify the idea according with Indonesian cultural identity. Nee-modernists, among them followers of well-known leaders Nurcholis Majid and Abdurrahman Wahid, state that the sacred texts of Islam - Qur'an and Sunnah contain main dements of democracy and Islamic dogmas can be used as the basis for building democratic slate and civil society in contemporary Indonesia.

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Кочкин П.  Современное состояние торговых отношений Вьетнама и Китая


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Кравков А.Г. О положении национальных меньшинств Тэйнгуен во Вьетнаме в начале XXI века


Abstract: Kravkov A. analises the major problem for the leaders of the modern Vietnam is the relations with the hill tribes (jarai, rhade, banhar), living in the Central Highlands. The lack of the central bodies attention to the poor socioeconomic situation in the plateau in 1990s lead to considerable actions of the Montagnards in 2001 and 2004. Warning to Hanoi, these protests were widely highlighted on the West by human rights organizations like the Human Rights Watch and the Montagnard Foundation. Moreover, the US used the subject to bring pressure on Vietnam when discussing the key bilateral issues. For this reason, the Vietnamese government since 2001 carries on a complex policy aimed at poverty reduction, rapid industry development, building economic and social infrastructure. The great efforts were made to resolve the main problems, including the preservation of the hill tribes traditional land-using methods and providing religious freedom. This resulted in progressive improvement of Montagnards living standards and also in the US decision to remove Vietnam from the Country of Particular Concern (CPC) list in the end of 2006.

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Левтонова Ю.О.  Филиппины: политика реалии и тенденции 2006 - первой половине 2007 гг.


Abstract: Dr. Yulia Levtonova in her paper analyses the results and trends in political process in the Philippines (2006 - the first half of 2007). The author stresses the problem of decay of the Filipino Politics at present time and considers the prospects for the political development in near future.

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Мазырин В.М.  Основные тенденции и результаты развития экономики СРВ в 2006 г.

Abstract: Dr. V. Mazyrin presents overview of core trends and achievements of Vietnam's economic performance. In the first section he evaluates consequences of inward and outward flows onto development facilities. The specific influence of global outcome was quite contradictious while market reforms inside the country created more stimuli for national progress and equitable growth.
The second section informs on economic growth indicators which demonstrate macroeconomic stability and dynamics of Vietnam. In particular, it displays data on increasing of income per capita, an inflow of foreign direct investment and official development assistance, foreign trade turnover and regional cooperation acceleration. These achievements demonstrate the right way of economic politics.
In the third section the structural shifts are examined. Transition to a market economy eased progressive changes of balance ratio between main sectors of manufacture and services. The author argues the trend of domestic economy transformation from agrarian into industrial one. It is accompanied by continuing ownership reallocation in the main realms of economic activities which fosters the country's move to a new order. Particularities and other core shifts in each realm (industry, agriculture, services and trade) are shown in this section too.
The next large part of the paper explores main directions of financial policy thus assessing current reforms in this field. The author analyzes budget and revenue execution, credit and monetary methods of regulation, currency and exchange rate fluctuation, external debt performance, investment flows origins, outcome and capital disbursement realities. High investment activities are regarded as due confirmation of Vietnam's fast growth and its capital intensive character.
Dr. Mazyrin confirms overall positive results of the process of Vietnam's market transformation and integration to global economy. Catch-up development of this country became enough sustainable. All above mentioned facts make possible to recognize Vietnam as borne "Asian dragon" though not yet flying.

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Мурашева Г.Ф.  Х-й съезд КПВ о внешней политике Вьетнама


Abstract:  
Dr. Galina Murasheva in her paper surveys the evolution of Vietnam's foreign policy doctrine since 1945 till today. The author stresses that this doctrine has been meeting the challenges of the time while developing and improving its main principles and strategies. In the 1940-ies -1980ies Vietnam was following the principle of «making more new friends and less enemies», under the new international conditions of the 1990-ies - early 21-st century it supplements its foreign policy principles and practice with a fresh wording «Vietnam is ready to be a reliable partner of the countries of the world community)). In 2006 Vietnam positions itself as an equal actor in the world politics and as an active participant of regional and global integration.
In the early 21-st century in Vietnam's official vocabulary and foreign policy practice a new concept emerged - «strategic partnership)) - with the number of Vietnam's strategic partners growing.
The author dwells on the results of Vietnam's foreign policy in 2006 which was very successful for the country both on the global and on regional levels.

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Пахомова Л.Ф.  Трансформация социально-экономической структуры Малайзии

Abstract:  Dr.  Luidmila Pakhomova asserts that the dramatic restructure of Malaysian economy from one a primary commodity to an industrialized country producing a broad range of goods and services, including innovation ones. For high-tech method of production development of human capital is crucial. It is an economic miracle spurred on by government policy witch combined strategic planning, creation institutions and market mechanism.

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Попов А.В.  Джакарта: социально-экономические проблемы столицы Индонезии


Abstract:  Dr. Popov A. analyses the most difficult socio-economic problems of the capital of Indonesia, among them: a very high density of its population, the polution of the environment, awful traffic jams and every year increasing floods. The existance of Jakarta's slums cause such problems as spreading of narcotics, criminality and epidemics and also threatens the rail traffic and the safety of the trestles of motor-roads. Huge amounts of garbage altogether with industrial waste make Jakarta as one of the most poluted city of the world. Every year floods not only kill hundreds of the urban poor but also destroy local roads that creates additional problems for the traffic.

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Симония А.А.  Новые приоритеты во внешней политике Мьянмы


Abstract:  Dr. Aida Simoniya examines new priorities of Myanmar's foreign policy since Myanmar has faced mounting diplomatic pressure from the international community after the renewed detention of Aung San Suu Kyi in May 2003. The author assessed how the regime has been able to take advantage of the economic, security and geostrategic interests of both China and India in the country to achieve developmental and security goals. As USA and other western countries have sought to place Myanmar under the scrutiny of the UN Security Council on the grounds that its domestic circumstances have regional security implications, the paper highlights how its relations with Beijing and Moscow have assumed ever greater significance.

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Смирнова А.А.  Страны ЮВА - ведущие инвесторы во Вьетнаме

Abstract:  
A.  Smirnova is of opinion that by 2007 SEA countries have invested more than US$14,4 bin in Vietnam (1083 projects) outbidding by total value two other groupings (i. e. offshore zones and EC). In the top-five category SEA countries ranking third by number of projects approved and first by value of investment involved. Singapore leads the top-five category leaving Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and Hongkong behind. The investment cooperation between Vietnam and other SEA countries has becoming much more bilateral: over 52% of Vietnam outward investment (US$970 by 2007) have been directed to SEA countries too. The data presented in the report testifies that Vietnam takes an active part in forming ASEAN Investment Area.


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Соколов А.А.  Вьетнамская культура: глобализация и рынок


Abstract:  Dr. Anatoly Sokolov in his paper ((Vietnamese culture in a market society and in time of globalization)) stresses the changing context of Vietnamese culture development and functioning with the state still continuing to control cultural product, both local and foreign.
Cultural exchange and advent of foreign, mainly mass culture tends to expand, including international theatre and cinema festivals, foreign musicians' performances, translation of literary works and so on. English is more widely used as well as Internet as a means of communication, electronic mass media and «a new literary environment)).
Modern Vietnamese literature is characterized by multiple trends from formalistic experiments to the rise of mass literature. Indigenous literature as a whole evolves towards the tastes of mass consumer.
Fewer production at the state film studios goes along with the rise of production at private film studios and with joint cinema production with foreigners including Vietnamese emigres.
TV retains its leading role as the main source of information and inspiration of cultural life. Commercialization of musical industry and fine arts (especially picture-galleries' business) demonstrates the trend to consumerism and entertainment in culture.
Rapid expansion of tourism (international as well as domestic) which is growing to be one of the country's leading industry, demonstrates the scale of Vietnam's involvement in the process of globalization.

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Сучков Г.В.  
Проблемы и перспективы продолжения преобразований в Вооруженных силах Индонезии в 2006-2007 гг.

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Урляпов В.Ф.  Малайзия: некоторые аспекты политического развития


Abstract:  
Dr. Vyacheslav Urlyapov in his article describes the main aspects of a domestic developments in Malaysia. The author writes that a decade after the Asian financial crisis, Malaysia's economy is at its best shape. The last few years have shown a significant strengthening of economic fundamentals with the government's move to improve competitiveness and to narrow budget deficit. Annual GDP growth hovered in the 6 per cent range in 2006. Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi launched the country's Third Industrial Master Plan. It targets a 6.3 per cent average economic growth in the next 15 years.
Nevertheless, not all is quiet on the domestic front. Malaysia has come into a rough time with deteriorating race relations between its majority ethnic Malays and minority Chinese and Indians. Half a century into nationhood the idea of a Bangsa Malaysia - a blended Malaysian race that was to have climbed out of the melting pot - is still nowhere in sight. Abdullah Badawi admitted that the major races were drifting further apart because of racial and religious divisions and built-in discrimination.
Besides, a sharp row has emerged between Prime Minister and Mahathir Mohamad, the former country's leader. Malaysia's public has been dismayed by the spectacle of a elder statesman turned chief opposition leader.

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Фомичева Е.А.
Таиланд в 2007 году
положение в стране после переворота

Abstract:  
Dr. Elena Fomicheva researches the political situation in Thailand after the military coup d'etat of 19 th September 2006. She describes the military coup as a means to end the political deadlock and considers the political prospects for parliamentary elections, including the controversies in working out of the new constitution, the possible political future of deposed prime-minister Taksin, new parties being set up. Special attention is paid to the problem of the military participation in political system of the country. The author also dwells on the role of the Thai monarchy. She finally comes to the conclusion that the political crisis in Thailand is far from being resolved.


 
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