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Юго-Восточная Азия: актуальные проблемы развития,
Выпуск XI (11), 2008

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СОДЕРЖАНИЕ
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Раздел  1. ОБЩЕРЕГИОНАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ



Былиняк С .А.
Центры мирового хозяйства и страны Юго-Восточной и Восточной Азии: особенности современного развития


Abstract:
Dr. Stanislav Bylinyak in his paper entitled «The centers of the world economy and the countries of South-East and East Asia: peculiar properties of current development» starts his study with analyses of «decouple» as a new phenomenon in the world economy. Its main idea is that the current crises in the centers of global economy influences economies of the peripheral countries less than before. The author argues that such approach could be accepted to a certain extent. But this trend shouldn't be absolutised which is visibly proved by the current global financial crisis. The paper also considers the problems of economic growth of a number of South-East Asian and East Asian countries and stresses that outside factors are still very important for them as a source of economic growth. The paper stresses great importance of investments in the productive sector in the actual conditions of South-East Asian countries' development.

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Колдунова Е.В.  
АСЕАН: проблемы регионализма и перспективы интеграционных процессов


Abstract: In the article «ASEAN: Regionalism and Prospects of Integration) E. Koldunova analyzes internal and external aspects of ASEAN's achievements for the past 40 years in the context of East Asian integration processes. Apparently, cooperation in the framework of Association is specified by regional features and is not identical to the European integration path. It is significant that South-east Asian regional cooperation model first of all proved to be aimed at shaping and maintenance of common values rather than functional integration. At the same time the Association's activity can be considered quite effective in balancing external powers' influence in the region and developmental orientation of South-east Asian states.

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Мосяков Д.В.  
Новые противоречия в Юго-Восточной Азии


Abstract: Dr. Dmitry Mosyakov analyses the current situation and political maneuvering in South-East Asia. In this respect he considers the political course of the US as well as Japan to consolidate their geo-political positions in the region. Great attention is also paid to China's attempts to intensify its influence in South-East Asia. The author studies the policy of ASEAN aimed at both consolidation of inner unity of the Association (passing of ASEAN'S Charter) and at multi-direction relations on the basis of advantage in a choice of partners in the framework of confrontation between American-Japanese block vis-a-vis China.

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Осипова М.Г.  Мировой финансовый кризис: радиус поражения


Abstract: In her paper Dr. Marina Osipova analyses the causes of cyclical world crises. The world financial system is in the process of evolution under the influence of both globalization and regional integration. Contradictions resulting from these trends are very difficult to resolve. What are the means to be applied? The first thing to do is to improve the world financial system. To this aim the joint attempts of all the participants of the world financial market are necessary.

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Рогожин  А.А. Интеграционный процесс в ЮВА: энергетический аспект


Abstract:
A.A. Rogozhin in the report «Integration Process in SEA: Energy Dimension) ascertained, that in 2007 the problem of energy security in SEA has extremely become aggravated. Its decision could not be delayed as the situation seems to be disturbing (and in some cases even alarming) in oil-and-gas complex of the ASEAN countries themselves, as well as on the world energy market. In 10 years to come ASEAN countries would not be able to secure their needs from the energy resources of their own. The countries of region will be gradually compelled to increase the dependence on import, and Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand would be the first be affected. The author is of opinion that all ASEAN countries including oil and LNG exporters will become net-importers of oil and, most likely, natural gas. Growing deficiency of energy resources specifies that in long-term perspective SEA countries could not secure stable flows of energy the fact making the region less attractive for investors. This circumstance, undoubtedly, has the important consequences not only for internal policy of the members of Association, but for their external economic policy and especially for energy diplomacy. Both in the countries of ASEAN as well in the Association itself there is a steady opinion that its member-countries are not able to solve the problem of their national energy securite using the resources of their own only. This challenge could be accepted only at a regional level by concerted efforts of all member-states of ASEAN.

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Рогожина Н.Г. Трудовая миграция в ЮВА


Abstract: In the article "International labour migration in South-East Asia" N.G. Rogojina notes that international migration is not a new historical phenomena for the countries of the region. But today this process has acquired new content and forms in line with those tendencies of development that are occurring in the region and globally and is explained by differences in labor markets and by inequality in income between countries. Intensity as well as the direction of the flow of migrants have changed and a new group of the countries of SEA has emerged the centers of immigration with high proportion of foreign workers in their labour force. Meanwhile migration occurring on economic basis, particularly temporary labour migration, is spreading quickly and will play an important role in prospective development of the region.

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Раздел  2. ПОЛИТИЧЕСКОЕ И ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ ОТДЕЛЬНЫХ СТРАН



Васильев В.Ф.
Мьянма/Бирма: политическая ситуация в стране приближается к фазе той или иной развязки


Abstract: Dr. V.F. Vasiliev concentrated on analysis of a chain of events in Myanmar, starting from the «shaffran revolution) in September 2007 and leading the military junta to prompt activisation of its long-delayed constitutional process with publication of draft constitution and holding a referendum on it in May, which overwhelmingly approved it in the tragic days after the deadly Cyclone Nargis struck southern Myanmar. The author describes the controversial political atmosphere after the referendum with the authorities triumphant, the opposition groups opposing the constitution and confused and the appearance of a «third force) accepting the constitution as a lesser evil compared to an open military dictatorship. In the author's view, it is worth-while not to reject the «constitutional chance) and use it. It is better with a constitutional than without it, whatever are the wrongs and rights of the military-made constitution. The situation in Myanmar now needs compromise more than ever, otherwise it is an endless deadlock.

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Другов  А .Ю.  Индонезия в 2007 г.


Abstract:
Dr. Alexei Drugov in his paper entitled «Indonesia in 2007) emphasized that political developments in the country were mainly influenced by fighting inside the political elite on the very far approaches to the parliamentary and presidential elections of 2009. Not sufficient communication between the Head of the State and the Vice-President is stressed.
Generally favorable trends in the economy of Indonesia were accompanied by financial problems resulted from high world oil prices and the consequent growth of subsidies for domestic energy prices. Some drawbacks of Indonesian economy -as stated
manifested themselves on the macro level.
In the foreign policy of Indonesia certain estrangement from the US actions in Iraq and Afghanistan could be detected. The visit of the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin to Indonesia with several agreements including those on military and technical cooperation being signed in the cause of it is of great importance for further Indonesian-Russian ties. Alarming developments in relations between Indonesia and Singapore as well as Malaysia are under way. They are partially connected with Indonesian-Singapore agreements on defense cooperation and extradition of criminals and with the plight of Indonesian workers in Malaysia. The inner latent causes of the conflicts still are territorial problems.

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Ефимова Л.М. Ислам Хадхари в современной Малайзии


Abstract:
L.M. Efimova in her article «Modern Islam in Malaysia) is analyzing the concept of Islam Hadhari introduced by the present prime minister Of Malaysia Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. Islam Hadhari is not a new religion of teaching. It is an approach to foster an Islamic civilization built upon the values and ideals of Islam. It places substance over form. It is practical and pragmatic. It emphasizes development that is consistent with the tenets of Islam, but at the same tine with healthy democratic practices and modern education. It is aimed at equitable sharing of the benefits of economic growth by all citizenry of the country irrespective of ethnicity or religion.

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Левтонова Ю.О.  Филиппины в 2007/2008 - в преддверии президентских выборов 2010


Abstract: Dr. Yulia Levtonova researches the political situation in the Philippines in the period before next presidential elections 2010. The author considers the prospects of political situation President G. M. Arroyo regime. She analyses the phenomenon of this leader as a most unpopular President after 1986 who is holding a high ruling position for almost 8 years. The special attention is paid to the research not only Ms G. Arroyo personality and leadership but to the stabilizing and destabilizing process and trends which have influence the political development of the Philippines. Special attention is paid also the new stage of the Muslim - Christian conflict in the South of the Philippines and its challenge to security and stability the whole region of SEA. In spite of negative trends in philippine politics the author's conclusion is cautiously optimistic. There is still possibility of constitutional procedure of changing the presidential post in 2010.

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Мазырин В.М.  Экономика Вьетнама в 2007 г.: первые итоги вступления в ВТО


Abstract: Dr. Vladimir Mazyrin of the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute for Far Eastern Studies in his paper analyses the first consequences for the economy of Vietnam of its joining the WTO. In 2007 substantial results in development of a market economy were achieved which manifested themselves in higher rates of growth, greater total public investments and bigger gold-currency reserve, wider foreign trade and inflow of foreign investments as well as lower level of poverty. Economic achievements strengthened political stability and ensured Vietnam's higher role in international relations.
At the same time the paper emphasizes the new problems and challenges facing the country. The quality indicators lag behind the quantity ones and Vietnam's economic growth remains extensive.
Such problems as inflation, deficit of foreign trade and of the state budget, inflating the bubble in real estate market, slower investment projects realization have intensified. Dr. Mazirin comes to the conclusion that Vietnam has fallen victim of too fast a growth, deeper integration into the global market and implementation of the WTO requirements.
Due to cyclical development of the SRV economy in the orbit of capitalism and its greater dependence on a conjuncture of world market the author predicts significantly lower dynamics of its growth for the years to come.

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Мурашева Г.Ф.  Политика Вьетнама в АСЕАН (2007-2008 гг.)


Abstract: Dr. Murasheva in her article «Vietnam's policy in ASEAN, (2007-2008)» showed the country's participation in the regional economic integration as the basic trend of Vietnam's regional policy. The article deals with three directions of Vietnamese regional policy: participation in the construction of ASEAN economic community by 2015, the drafting of ASEAN Charter and taking part in the concrete projects with the aim to narrow the gap in the socio-economic development of ASEAN countries. The Vietnamese leaders being the authors of the socio-cultural cooperation idea as the third component of ASEAN's «three pillar Community) pay great attention to this problem . The author argues that Vietnam in its ASEAN policy persues its national interests as well as follows the principle of garmonizing its own interests with those of other ASEAN countries and ASEAN as a whole.

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Новикова Е.В.  Социо-культурный облик современной китайской диаспоры Малайзии и Сингапура


Abstract:
Dr. Ekaterina Novikova's paper concentrates on modern social and cultural nature of Chinese diaspora stressing the importance of spiritual traditions of the Chinese in Malaysia and Singapore. It is obvious, as the author states, that in the Chinese traditional ideology there are certain elements connected with cultural and civilization core. The author analyses how Chinese traditional system of values is transforming in Malaysia and Singapore under the influence of today's poly-ethnic society. This paper is based on practical observation by the author of the dynamics of social and cultural changes among the overseas Chinese in Malaysia and Singapore for the last several years.

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Петровский Д.И., Черепнева Е.А. Православие в Индонезии (2007-2008)


Abstract:
The paper by Dmitry Petrovsky (The Division of Foreign Relations of Moscow Patriarchate) and Dr. Elena Cherepneva (The Institute of oriental studies of the Russian Academy of sciences) informs that on May 17 th 2007 the Act on canonic communication between the Russian Orthodox Church and Russian Orthodox Overseas Church was signed, which brought to light new questions. The authors stress that today Indonesia is the only South Asian country where Orthodox propagation is successfully developing and the making of national Orthodox Church is under way. As a result of a December 2007 visit and meetings of the Moscow Patriarchy clergy and Archbishop of Sidney and Australia and New-Zeeland Illarion it was decided to add to charter of the organization «Indonesian Orthodox Church), which is officially registered by Indonesian government, the notion that the said structure is under canonic authority of the Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchy. At the same time there are problems because there are three church structures functioning in Indonesia. The authors discuss the prospects for a united Orthodox Church of Indonesia.

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Симония А.А. «Шафрановая революция» в Мьянме: причины и последствия


Abstract: Dr. Aida Simoniya in her paper entitled «The Saffron uprising) in Myanmar: causes consequences) examines recent political events in Myanmar. Special attention in paid to root causes and participants of pro-democracy protests in September 2007 named as «saffron revolution). After the authorities violently suppressed mass demonstrations led by Buddhist monks the international community increased pressure on the junta to accelerate the realization of its plans for democratic changes.
Soon the military administration announced that it will hold a general multiparty elections in 2010 and went ahead with a referendum on the new constitution in the scheduled date - on May 10 th, 2008. This was done in spite of the humanitarian catastrophe caused by cyclone Nargis a week before. The author presumes that the military government being a target of sharp international criticism and economic sanctions decided to speed up carrying out stages of the «road map to democracy) to legitimize its power.

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Соколов А.А. Литература вьетнамского зарубежья: проблемы современного развития


Abstract: Dr. Anatoly Sokolov's paper is devoted to a practically new problem for the Russian Orientalistics - the literature of Vietnamese Diaspora. Today over 3 million Vietnamese live outside their historical motherland - in more than 90 countries. The author analyses different waves of Vietnamese emigration, revealing their historical and political characteristics.
The main attention is paid to the Vietnamese Diaspora in the US as the most numerous and economically mighty one. This very country is the centre of the Vietnamese literature abroad. It is here that a lot of newspapers and magazines in Vietnamese are issued, radio and TV channels are functioning and many publishing houses are working.
This paper considers in detail the chronology of Vietnamese literature in alien linguistic setting, with each stage of its development being analyzed, the literary work of some of more prominent writers being covered, literary directions and trends being outlined.
The author arrives at a general conclusion that the only choice for the Vietnamese overseas literature is either to integrate into the readers community in their historical motherland (if the author writes in the Vietnamese) or - into the readers community in their new country (for those writing in English, French, German and other languages).

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Урляпов  В .Ф. Тимор-Лешти после независимости


Abstract: Dr. Vyacheslav Urlyapov analyses trends and outcome of the political process in the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste beyond independence. In the state much of the political energy of the first four years of independence was concentrated on putting basic democratic institutions in place. These institutions were of vital importance for the functioning of the national economy. But the period after April 2006 was characterized by extensive turmoil. The normal political process ceased to function and street violence took over as the main expression of divergent viewpoints. The trigger was discontent among parts of the armed forces and national police. It was also related to the successively deepening rift between the president , Xanana Gusmao, and the prime minister, Mari Alkatiri.
Now Timor-Leste has entered a new political phase with contents largely unknown.

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Фомичева Е.А. Таиланд: выборы состоялись - кризис продолжается. Правительство Сураюта Чуланона - Правительство Самака Сунтхаравета 2007 - начало 2008 г.


Abstract: Dr. Elena Fomicheva in her paper makes an attempt to survey and analyze the Thai political scene, covering such events as drafting the new Constitution, the country's first referendum on the draft charter, the December 2008 general parliamentary elections and forming of a new coalition government under Samak Sundaravej, the leader of the People Power Party. The author considers a number of issues facing the Thai society, including the state of democracy in the country, the political role of the military, the fate of the monarchy, wider public political participation, etc. The author comes to the general conclusion that longstanding political crisis in Thailand is still far from being finished and in fact it could get more intense.

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Раздел  3. СТРАНИЦЫ ИСТОРИИ



Тюрин  В. А. «Чрезвычайка»: гражданская война в форме этнического противостояния


Abstract: Dr. Vladimir Tyurin in his paper «Emergency in the history of Malaysia) states that the 12-year-period in the history of Malaya - since 18 June 1948 till 31 June 1960- came into everyday language as "The Emergency" and later this term was accepted by research and media publications. In the narrow sense this word refers to the armed guerilla war, waged by the Communist Party of Malaya against the British colonizers. But, on the other hand, «The Emergency) influenced all aspects of life in Malaya (and to a great extent in Singapore) - economic, social, political, national, it was also connected with the system of international relations and the pace and ways of the country's gaining independence and choice of ideology. In this respect this term could hardly be attributed only to armed confrontation between the British army and the police on one side and communist guerillas, - on the other. The causes of «The Emergency) are still the subject of discussions. Partisan approach gave way to more balanced analyses.


 
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