Popov Fedor

Chinese Dimension of the Myanmar Civil War: Ethnopolitics, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics

ЮГО-ВОСТОЧНАЯ АЗИЯ: АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ, 2024, №3(64), 144-161

 
Annotation: The article examines the situation in Shan State (Myanmar), where hostilities between the Myanmar army and ethnic rebel groups have sharply intensified since October 2023. Primary attention is paid to the role of China in the conflict. This role, usually associated with Beijing's geo-economic interests, is interpreted by the author from the perspective of ethnopolitics, the ethnic expansion of the Han people in northeastern Myanmar. The article makes a brief excursion into the history of Sino-Burmese relations, noting the presence of ideas about the "Chinese threat" in the Burmese self-awareness. After the constitutional transfer of 2021, China has been pursuing a complex policy in the Myanmar direction, seeking to minimize its losses from the civil war. With the start of «Operation 1027», which could not take place without the approval of the PRC, the thesis of a «Chinese proxy war» has become widespread in the pro-war segment of the public sphere of Myanmar. It is believed that the PRC uses groups such as MNDAA, TNLA, AA and UWSA as a means of pressuring the central government. Using materials from the modern history of Myanmar and media materials, the author of the article reconstructs both the real Chinese intervention in the civil war and the reaction of Myanmar society to it.

Keywords: Myanmar, China, Myanmar civil war, Shan State