Beyond the Demographic Dividend: Reforming Vietnam's Economic Structure for Long-Term Sustainable Growth

ЮГО-ВОСТОЧНАЯ АЗИЯ: АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ, 2025, №3(68), 236-249

 
Annotation: The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the demographic transition on the structural transformation of Vietnam's economy. It examines how the “demographic dividend”, manifested in the growth of the working-age population share, acted as a catalyst for industrialization and economic boom during the “Đổi Mới” reform period. The author details the mechanisms of realizing this dividend through the transfer of labor from the agricultural sector to industry, foreign direct investment attraction, and human capital development. Particular attention is paid to the new development stage characterized by demographic decline and rapid population aging, which necessitates a shift from an extensive growth model to one based on productivity growth, innovation, and human capital quality. The article includes a comparative analysis of the structural transformation paths of Vietnam and China, revealing similarities and differences in their modernization approaches and responses to demographic challenges. It concludes that successful adaptation to the new demographic reality is a key condition for Vietnam's sustainable long-term development.

Keywords: demographic dividend, China, Vietnam, structural transformation of the economic model