Simonia Aida

Myanmar: destabilizing factors in the process of democratization implementation

ЮГО-ВОСТОЧНАЯ АЗИЯ: АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ, 2013, №21, 164-171

 
Annotation: The paper considers the symptoms of the dangerous direction Myanmar is heading. The rise of radical and nationalist elements in the country may jeopardize the government’s reform initiatives. In June 2011 a 17-years old “ceasefire agreement” between Myanmar army and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) broke down and heavy fighting resumed. Nowadays the war in Kachin State is not just about politics anymore. The state is rich in jade and other natural resources. During the truce period, the Myanmar army encroached on many areas once controlled by the KIA, bringing in tycoons from central Myanmar and China for mining jade and logging valuable timber. On May 30, 2013 Kachin leaders agreed to sign an initial “agreement to reduce military tension”, but they stopped short of signing a ceasefire without gaining more concessions. That is why there is a coatious optimism as to the Kachin State’s peace prospects. Another destabilizing factor is religious strife. Since the outbreak of violence in Arakan State in 2012 more clashes between Buddhists and Muslims have broken out around the country, from Meikthila in central Myanmar to Lashio in the Shan State. Some people, including key government leaders, came to the conclusion that powerful figures working in the shadows are behind these deadly incidents. They fear that if the violence continues to spread across Myanmar the elections planned for 2015 could be postponed.

Keywords: MYANMAR, COMING ELECTIONS, HARDLINERS, KACHIN INDEPENDENCE ARMY (KIA), FOREIGN PEACEMAKERS, MUSLIMS, RADICAL BUDDHISM, MOVEMENT”969”